Newsletter: Issue 09, 2026

G’day 👋

The housing market started 2026 with some encouraging momentum. Existing home sales rose in February, purchase application data has been positive year over year every week this year, and pending sales have also been trending up. That’s the good news.

The main variable still driving everything? Mortgage rates.

As long as rates stay closer to 6% and below roughly 6.25%, the market has room to keep moving forward. But if inflation pressures, global conflict, higher energy prices, or Fed concerns push rates back up, that momentum could cool quickly.

In this issue:

🧑‍💼 Buyers: The pros and cons of the appraisal process
🏘️ Sellers: How appraisals can help or hurt your deal
💳 Mortgage Watch: Why the market has started 2026 stronger — and what could change that

Once you’re under contract and using financing, your lender will usually order an appraisal. The appraiser’s job is to give an independent opinion of the home’s value based on recent comparable sales, condition, upgrades, location, and market trends.

For buyers, the appraisal is one of the biggest checkpoints in the transaction.

Protection against overpaying. If the appraisal supports the contract price, that’s a strong sign the value lines up with the market.

Leverage if value comes in low. A low appraisal can create room to renegotiate price, request a credit, or find another solution.

Extra due diligence. It’s not the same as an inspection, but it still provides another layer of review before closing.

More confidence going into the finish line. If the value checks out, it removes one major uncertainty from the deal.

A low appraisal can create stress fast. Even if you love the house, a value gap can force difficult decisions.

You may need more cash. If the seller won’t reduce the price, the buyer may need to bring in additional funds to cover the difference.

The process is largely out of your control. The lender orders the appraisal, and neither side gets to hand-pick the appraiser.

It can delay closing. If the value comes in short and both sides need to renegotiate, timelines can get tight.

For buyers, the appraisal is a protection tool — but it can also become a pressure point. The goal is to go in with realistic expectations, understand the comps, and have a plan if the number comes in lower than expected.

From the seller’s perspective, the appraisal is where the agreed contract price gets tested by the lender’s value opinion. Even in a strong market, the home still has to be supported by comparable sales.

A strong appraisal validates your pricing. When the value supports the contract price, it reinforces that the home was positioned correctly.

It helps keep the deal moving. One clean appraisal can remove a major hurdle in a financed sale.

It builds buyer confidence. Buyers generally feel better moving forward when the value matches the deal.

It confirms market positioning. Strong appraisals show that condition, upgrades, and pricing all aligned well.

A low appraisal can force renegotiation. You may be asked to reduce the price, offer a credit, or meet somewhere in the middle.

Not every upgrade gets full dollar-for-dollar credit. Sellers often invest heavily in their homes, but the appraisal may not reflect every improvement the way they expect.

The deal can be put at risk. If a buyer can’t make up the gap and the seller won’t adjust, the transaction can fall apart.

Market momentum does not guarantee appraised value. Even if demand feels strong, the appraiser still has to support the number with recent sales data.

For sellers, the appraisal is less about emotion and more about support. The cleanest deals happen when the home is priced with the market — not just hope — and when there’s a strategy in place if the number comes in light.

The market has shown some positive signs early this year:

Existing home sales rose in February

Purchase application data has been positive year over year every week in 2026

Pending sales have also been tracking positively year over year

That tells us demand is still alive — even if we’re starting from a relatively low baseline.

Rates have remained in a workable range. As long as mortgage rates stay under about 6.25%, housing activity has room to grow.

Inventory has improved. We’re no longer dealing with the desperate post-COVID inventory shortage, which has helped cool some of the extreme seller-market conditions.

Mortgage spreads have improved. That has helped keep rates from pushing much higher and has supported buyer demand.

Rising oil, gas, and diesel prices

Global conflict and broader market uncertainty

Tariffs and inflation concerns

Fed hawks pushing a tougher stance on rates

Any move higher in the 10-year Treasury yield

The simple version: every time mortgage rates start moving toward 7%, the demand curve usually weakens and the market slows down. That’s why keeping rates closer to 6% is such a big deal.

Buyers: Affordability is still very sensitive to rates. Even a small jump higher can change monthly payments and purchasing power quickly.

Sellers: The market is improving, but it’s still rate-dependent. If rates stay in range, activity can continue building. If rates spike, buyers tend to pull back.

Note: Rates vary based on credit score and down payment.

The housing market has started 2026 on a better footing, but rates are still the main story. If mortgage rates stay in a workable range, we could continue to see more activity this year. If they move sharply higher, that progress can slow down fast.

That’s also why the appraisal matters so much right now.

For buyers, it’s a safeguard against overpaying and a chance to confirm the numbers make sense. For sellers, it’s one of the final tests that can either support the deal or create a hurdle that needs solving. In a market like this, pricing well, understanding value, and being prepared for the appraisal process can make all the difference.

Click the link👇 to see what your home is worth or start searching for your future home. No pressure. Just clarity.