For this week’s special edition, I’m pulling insights from my only trusted source in the mortgage and finance space, Logan Mohtashami of HousingWire. His latest two articles together tell a very clear story: housing demand has continued to hold up better than many expected, but rising mortgage rates are now at a critical inflection point.
In Logan’s first article, he pointed out that even with higher oil prices, elevated mortgage rates, and ongoing geopolitical stress tied to the conflict, housing activity was still showing resilience. Weekly pending sales rose to 71,230, and purchase applications were up 12% year over year, which tells us buyers are still in the market when rates remain within a workable range.
But the second article adds the caution flag.
According to Logan, the conflict helped push the 10-year yield to 4.38%, which increases the risk that mortgage rates move higher from here. He noted that the higher end of a 6.50% to 6.75% mortgage rate range is now back in play if this geopolitical pressure continues or escalates.
That’s the key takeaway: the housing market still has demand, but mortgage rates remain the lever that matters most. Logan has been consistent on this point for months — when rates stay closer to 6% to 6.25%, the market has room to move, buyers engage, and existing home sales can improve. But when rates start pushing materially higher, momentum can cool quickly.
So where does that leave us right now?
We’re in a market that is showing encouraging demand underneath the surface, but it’s also a market that is highly rate-sensitive. Buyers are still stepping in, inventory is no longer at the ultra-distressed post-COVID lows, and the foundation for a healthier year is there. But if bond yields and energy-driven inflation fears continue climbing, affordability will tighten again and that could slow the spring housing season
Note: Rates vary based on credit score and down payment.
Final Thought:
This is not a demand-collapse story. It’s a rate-risk story.
The underlying demand data is still constructive, which is encouraging. But the market is walking a tightrope, and mortgage rates are the balancing pole. As Logan keeps emphasizing, the direction of rates from here will likely determine whether housing keeps grinding forward — or whether this recent momentum starts to fade.
For now, the best approach is to stay patient and optimistic that, if rates settle back down, the market can regain its footing in the weeks ahead and get the spring season back on track 😀.
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